^ Hillary Clinton : beats all opponents

McClatchy Newspapers and Marist have just published a full poll of the Presidential race. It shows that Hillary Clinton beats all challengers, most by double digits:

Clinton v. Chris Christie : Clinton 47 Christie 41
Clinton v. Jeb Bush : Clinton 48, Bush 40
Clinton v. Marco Rubio : Clinton 50, Rubio 38
Clinton v. Rand Paul ; Clinton 50, Rand Paul 38
Clinton v. Paul Ryan : Clinton 53, Ryan 37
Clinton v. Rick Perry ; Clinton 52, Perry 36.

as for the Dem primary, it’s Clinton 63, Biden 13, Cuomo 6.

This poll mirrors those already released by Quinnipiac University and Public Policy polling (PPP). Those polls show Clinton carrying Virginia against all comers and doing the same in iowa and Ohio except against Chris Christie, who ties her in those two states. Clearly, Hillary Clinton right now is the clear favorite to become our next President — If she runs.

Moreover, her huge numbers over Vice President Joe Biden, in the Democratic Primary, make clear that voters do NOT see Hillary as a continuation of the Obama Presidency. Indeed, it appears that they see Hillary as the opposite of him. this is bad news for those GOP pundits who want to assert that after eight years of Obama, it is time for a change. Hillary Clinton IS that change — at least she is how voters see it.

^ Chris Christie : competitive against Clinton and favored by GOP voters

We have also been opining that the above results guaranteed that neither Christie nor Jeb Bush will get the GOP nomination. After all, they run competitively. And to the GOP base, being competitive with a Democrat means compromising with the unthinkable. But the McClatchy/Marist poll of Republican Primary voters indicates that we were wrong. It looks now as though we were wrong. Tea Party loudmouths, fake God preachers, and Tea-district Congressmen may view compromise with Democrats as anathema, but GOP Primary voters appear to favor Chris Christie, whose career has symbolized GOP-Democrat co-operation and mutual respect.

Here is the McClatchy/Marist GOP primary result :

Christie 15
Ryan 13
Rubio 12
Paul 9
Bush 9
Cruz 7

To the GOP loudmouths and haters, Christie is “dead to me.” that is how they talk of him. But to the GOP’s voters, Christie is more alive than any of the other hopefuls, several of whom look rather much like “dead.”

Maybe Chris Christie can do it — win the 2016 GOP nomination. If so, the GOP will be at least useful again to most people — an instrument of policy, not venom.

— Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere



^ Detroit : on the move at Movement

Three weeks ago Here and Sphere published Susan Domitrz-Sapienza’s extensively researched story on the comeback of Detroit. As she noted, the economy of “Automobile City” had already reached its bottom and was — and is now — expanding along several lines newly established. The decision of the city’s state-appointed manager to file a Chapter 9 (Municipal) bankruptcy petition would seem, at first, to contradict our reporter’s finding. In fact, the Chapter 9 filing conforms our reporter’s conclusion.

To learn why, one needs to know a bit more about bankruptcy law than the common perception. Most people think of the word “bankruptcy” as the end, a kind of giving up the ghost. This perception is false. There are two kinds of bankruptcy cases. The one that most people think of is “liquidation,” in a liquidation, yes: the petitioner is in fact giving up the ghost — is ending things. There is, however, an entirely different kind of bankruptcy petition : the “reorganization.” In a reorganization filing, the petitioner seeks to restructure its affairs so that they can prosper again. All municipal, Chapter 9 filings are reorganizations.

The reorganizing petitioner seeks to — must — present a reorganization PLAN to the bankruptcy trustee appointed to the case, for approval by its creditors, the Trustee, and the Court. So,me corporate reorganizations fail, but a municipal reorganization cannot : cities have tax revenues that must be paid, and these are quantifiable. all that a city’s reorganization plan needs to is match tax revenues — and maybe also the proceeds of sales of city-owned real estate — to debts. Clearly, in such reorganization, the city’s creditors (including its pensioners) will probably be offered less than full repayment; and yes, each class of creditors must separately approve the reorganization plan. Many amended plans may be filed. But a city’s revenue can be counted on, and, as a reorganization plan may take up to five years to perform, the city’s revenues over that period are likely to offer creditors a fair return.

In addition, financing is often available to reorganization debtors after they file that was not available before ; because (1) post-filing debt is not included in the bankruptcy and thus is not subject to payment of less than full amount due and (2) the reorganization plan, as it becomes an order of court, makes the city’s post-filing credit standing easy to compute. A Detroit bondholder, for example, can readily exchange pre-filing bonds for post-filing bonds, if such are offered.

So much for the bankruptcy law as it applies to the Detroit filing.

The bigger point is that no bankruptcy petitioner files a reorganization until its finances look promising enough for it to present a feasible Plan. Such is the case with Detroit. Its finances are improving. real estate is selling fast. New businesses are starting up. Chrysler’s Jeep Cherokee plant is booming — as was reported recently in the Bew York Times. The Movement EDM Festival is bringing thousands of young visitors to the city on Memorial day weekend. Artists are setting up shop in Detroit, where rents for lofts are cheaper than cheap. Real estate tax revenues will only increase.

All of which is why Detroit’s bankruptcy filing signals the city’s recovery, not its failure.

—– Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere

Coffee or Vodka? Parenting 911 SUMMER SAVVY-SUMMER SMART

Coffee or Vodka?


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Dear: Parenting 911

I’m a mother of 2 under the age of 6, my youngest Ari is 3 1/2 years old and Conner-Joel is 5.  Since it is summer — weekend after weekend, I find myself neck-deep in — cook-outs, birthday parties, weddings, family gatherings, and beach/park days. Although most of these should be pure fun  for my little family; I feel as if I’ve headed out on an endless mission. No matter how much I prepare for these events — I still find myself running back home for one thing or another, often more than once — it surely puts a damper on any summer fun that may have ensued. I attempt to plan ahead — but the kids always have me rattled and frenzy-ish before ever leaving the house — causing me to always be unprepared. Since my husband is a Sargent in the military, he is rarely…

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