Tag / polls

by hereandsphere

BOSTON MAYOR : NATE SILVER-ING THE CONNOLLY-WALSH NUMBERS

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John Connolly — Marty Walsh ; time to prospect the numbers

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Enough polls have been taken of Boston’s Mayoral Final now that we can already conclude much about the race. By the numbers, taking the average of all five recent polls, John Connolly holds a lead of about 43.4 % to Marty Walsh’s 37.3 %. The remaining 19.7 % of voters say they’re undecided. The next ,most important statistic is how steady the two candidate’s support has been. Since the first Final polls appeared, Walsh has polled either 36 % or 37 %, with the exception of one poll that gave him 39 %; Connolly, meanwhile, has polled 44 % or 45 % since before the primary, although two of the five recent polls showed him backing to 41 and 40 % respectively. And in those two polls, his lost voters did not move to Walsh. They became undecided. Walsh’s okay performance in the first debate moved some, his endorsement by a platoon of well-known’s moved the rest — but as i said, not to him; only to undecided.

My former editor in chief at the Boston Phoenix, Peter Kadzis, says that the race is now all about Walsh; that Connolly is “holding on” — his words — and Walsh is moving ahead. I see it just the opposite. Connolly’s support seems consistent, unshakable. The question in the minds of the 55 to 60 % of voters not yet moving to Connolly is whether he really SHOULD be the next Mayor. They are either giving Walsh a second look or — more likely — just learning who he is and willing to hear more. that does not translate, in my mind, to “moving Walsh’s way.”

A closer look at the Globe poll’s numbers seems to weaken Kadzis’s argument. If the poll’s “leaners’ are added to the committeds, Connolly has 47%, Walsh 38% of the vote, with only 15% undecided. this is a significant gap. A candidate who is 9 points down with only 15% undecided practically has to win every undecided vote or else lose.

The poll also suggests that all the energy that Walsh put into winning his spate of endorsements hasn’t helped him much,. Though he gets Arroyo’s September voters by 15 to 9, and Barros voters 13 to 9, he loses Charlotte Golar-Richie voters 19 to 26. Winning his three endorsers; votes by 47 to 44 won’t cut it.

No poll yet done reflects Connolly’s commanding performance in the second debate, held two nights ago. My guess is that that debate moved a measurable chunk of the 14.7% undecideds to Connolly. Even if that is true, however, even if a new poll shows the race Connolly 46-50 and Walsh 37-40, the race is far from wrapped. This is not a presidential election, where almost every voter is sure to vote. many voters won’t bother unless they are TAKEN to the polls. Which means organization, a field army, as all pollsters take care to point out. Walsh is the field-army candidate. That his army may be mostly union activists is a problem impression for him to risk, but on election day that doesn’t matter. Even if the burliest union guy who ever snarled on a picket line shows up at your door to take you to the polls, you will go, because yes, you know it’s your duty to do so. And your almost uncast vote will count just as much as the most dedicated supporter’s.

How much is a dedicated field army worth ? In the many Boston city campaigns that I field-directed, each election day door-knocker could bring eight to ten voters to the polls, of whom maybe half would not have voted without that contact being made. The biggest precinct organization I ever worked with had about 16 people aboard. So, assuming all 16 do their job all day long, good “field’ can add about 64 votes to the total. Walsh probably can’t do much “field” in Wards 4, 5, and most of 3, but in the other 19 he can do plenty. They total 227 precincts. If all his “field people” do their job all day, they can add 227 x 64 = 14,528 votes to the total turnout. that equals about 9.5% of the likely final turnout number.

Of course his “field vote” WON’T total 14,528, for four reasons:

1.On Primary day his people already turned out almost all its vote, in walsh’s strongest precincts. There isn’t much new vote there to get.

2.Some voters whom “field people” bring to the polls don’t vote for that candidate. Not many, probably, but some.

3.All of Walsh’s field people can NOT “do their job” all day long. Traffic, missed communication, voters not answering the door — the fog of election war degrades even the finest field organization. From personal experience I can attest that if Walsh’s field works accomplish two thirds of their goal, they’ll have done well.

4.Connolly may not have a ready-made army of union activists, but he is hardly without committed, hard-working volunteers. Whatever vote Walsh people bring to the polls, Connolly can bring at least half that.

My conclusion ? Walsh can probably add about 8,000 votes to the total, Connolly 4,000. Which gives Walsh a net plus of 4,000 votes. that will likely be about 3 % of the total turnout.

in the Primary, of course, that 4,000 additional vote was good enough, with 12 candidates on the ballot and nobody having a huge number, to move Walsh past Connolly into first place. He managed slightly over 20,000 votes on that day. His field 4,000 comprised 20 % of it. No such bump will Walsh get on November 5th. If he is to win — and he well might — he will have to EARN it, not bring it.

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^ 1967 : Tony D’Arcangelo, who was John Sears’s East Boston guy in that campaign

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Melnea Cass : what Clayton Turnbull and the Black Ministers have been to John Connolly, she was to John Sears in 1967.

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^ John Sears, 1967 :much of what John Connolly is this year, he was in 1967.

POST SCRIPT : Is this 1967 again ? It seems that it is. Then we had a patrician urban reformer, John Sears — a Republican, even — running against the ultimate, South Boston Irish traditionalist, Louise Day Hicks. Sears did not win in the Primary — being a Republican hurt — but Kevin White, who did win, stepped right into Sears’s shoes. And what sort of voters did Sears command ? The young and well educated voters of Wards 3, 4, and 5; italian voters; and the black community. Does this look familiar ? Of course it does. John Connolly has John Sears’s vote, to which he has added his own Wards 19 and 20 and his mother’s home Ward 2 in Charlestown.

It almost amazes me to see how little has actually changed in Boston’s voting patterns and community alliances. The one thing that Has changed is the political party. in 1967, high-minded, education-oriented, parks and green, visionary urban reform was the hallmark of the Massachusetts Republican party — and still very much in power — as was the party’s solid connection to Italian voters and the Black Community (Melnea Cass, after whom the Boulevard was named, was a pillar of 1960s Black Boston — and was, in those days of senator Ed Brooke, a Republican state Committeewoman very active in the Sears campaign.) Today, the policy and community descendants of the 1967 Republican party are almost all Democrats : Obama Democrats, in fact. But then, is Barack Obama himself not precisely the educated, urban, high-minded reformer who would have been that kind of Republican two generations ago ?

— Micahel Freedberg / Here and Sphere

by hereandsphere

BOSTON MAYOR RACE : WHAT THE THREE POLLS TELL US

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^ John Connolly : the school issue is his and very possibly the election

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You’ve all seen the three new polls published on Boston’s Mayor campaign. (If you haven’t seen them, go look.) Taken together, they show the following percents of vote for the top nine contenders :

Connolly at 14 to 16
Walsh at 10 to 12
Conley at 8 to 12
Golar-Richie at 10
Arroyo at 6 to 8
Consalvo at 6 to 8
Barros at 3 to 6
Walczak at 4 to 6
Ross at 5
Undecided : 19 to 22

There isn’t, or shouldn’t be, much doubt about what these numbers tell us :

1. John Connolly will be in the Final. He appears very much in command of the race. School transformation is his issue, it’s the voters’ number one issue too, and he articulates his agenda for schools with authority, detail, conviction, and a convincing tie-in to the other two major issues, jobs and public safety. His field organization — “ground game” in this campaign’s argot — is broadly based, in very diverse communities of the city, and well versed in what field organizations are supposed to in a primary : get out the vote. Plus, his Mom’s from Charlestown. That, dear readers, is authenticity.

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^ Marty Walsh : the voice of Urgency

2. Marty Walsh should be in the Final, because his issue is a clear alternative one to Connolly’s : keeping the construction boom going in Boston — and expanding its reach, because it furthers economic development and creates good jobs. Unfortunately for Walsh, his issue is a smaller one than Connolly’s. There are 58,000 public school parents in Boston and lots more who would be public school parents if they could perceive the city’s public schools as good enough. There are far fewer than 58,000 construction jobs in city. The particularity of Walsh’s vision threatens to keep him out of second place — more on that below; but, fortunately for his chances, he is backed by a field organization as large as Connolly’s (and maybe larger) and passionately dedicated to this campaign’s “candidate of Urgency.”

It also helps that he is a true son of Boston’s land of on-street parking and rows of three deckers. That, dear readers, is grit and lumber !

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^ Dan Conley : administrative reform may not be sexy enough to win a spot in the final

3. Dan Conley might edge past Walsh to the second spot because as Suffolk County District Attorney (and former District 5 Councillor) he is already a proven city-wide administrator who speaks in authoritative detail — and with conviction — about the reforms he would bring to city administration, the police and fire departments most of all. He has tons of money and a field organization as dependable — if less passionate or diverse — as Walsh’s. His problem is that city administration reform isn’t an issue that hits voters where they live, as do schools and jobs. A Mayor can always hire an administrative reformer.

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^ Charlotte Golar-Richie : political history is her mother earth

4.Charlotte Golar-Richie has risen in the polls. She now contends. This she has done by dint of being the only woman in the candidate list — something she rarely neglects to mention — and the most prominent of color. This is, oddly, a candidate of identity politics, a winner 30 and 40 years ago but probably not today. Voters of color give her strong backing, but by no means overwhelming. Today they want results, not image. Golar-Richie is also hindered by her forensics. At Forums and on the stump she sometimes articulates a vision, sometimes not. Even at her best the vision seems flavorless — a less punitive version of Conley’s “I Will Reform City Administration.” Uneven articulation of mild reform excites no one, and thus Golar-Richie’s field organization — and her voters — seem lacking the necessary force to “get out the vote” on Primary day. That is why she polls in fourth place.

UPDATE : as expected, Golar-Richie today received endorsement by State Senator Sonia Chang-Diaz and state Rep. Russell Holmes. BUT … State Rep. Byron Rushing endorsed Felix Arroyo….

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^ Particularist candidates ; Felix arroyo (above) and Rob Consalvo

5.Felix Arroyo and Rob Consalvo seem matched pairs. as Consalvo’s poll has declined, Arroyo’s has increased. They now poll the same. Each has the Boston Teachers Union (BTU) endorsement. Each man has a campaign theme that no rival encroaches upon : Arroyo’s theme is a “pathway out of poverty,” through full-day schools to jobs which, with union organization behind them, can pay well. (Arroyo never fails to mention how as an organizer of janitors, he got their pay boosted from $ 9.00 an hour with no benefits to $ 16,.00 an hour with full benefits.) He also talks “invest in Boston,’ a program — just now voted favorably by the City Council — to require banks in which the City keeps its money (a billion dollars) to invest in Boston businesses. Consalvo, meanwhile, has taken to being the BTU’s voice on school reform, an agenda quite unlike Connolly’s, one which takes the risky position of defending Boston Public school performance. The problem for both men, and why they poll at only 6 to 8 percent, is that the voters either do not agree (Consalvo) or are to narrow a constituency (Arroyo) to get either candidate close to a second place Primary finish. Limited visions with limited constituencies may well exhibit great passion ; both Consalvo and Arroyo have that from their supporters. But a passionate vote counts no more than a coolly reflective one, just as the keys on a laptop only punch one letter at a time no matter how hard your finger hits them.

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^ Brilliance : Mike Ross (and John Barros) speak vividly of tomorrow. But the elect is today.

6. Mike Ross and John Barros poll lower still. The two men are the brightest and most progressive visionaries of all the candidates. No one speaks more eloquently. None has a surer grasp of what city life will be tomorrow. So what is the problem ? First, neither man leads a large constituency. Ross’s Back Bay / Beacon Hill / Mission Hill District has little in common, economically or culturally, with the rest of the City. Barros is a hero to the denizens of Dudley Square, which the organization that he founded has revitalized; to the citizens of Uphams’ Corner, where he lives; and to Boston’s Cape Verdean community. But even if you add up all three of Barros’s bases, it’s small potatoes compared to the city as a whole. And this is his first race ever for elected office.

7.The 19 % undecided. It’s still the largest number of any in the three polls. theoretically it’s large enough to anoint or eliminate anyone. That will not happen. undecided voters do one of the following : ( a ) not vote at all ( b ) vote for a perceived winner, because they know him or her best anyway or ( c ) decide on the issues, among several who they are considering. The first group doesn’t count. The second trends to John Connolly. the third will likely divide in many directions. My guess is that the undecideds won’t change the current poll very much. They’ll simply fatten its numbers.

—- Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere

by hereandsphere

BOSTON MAYOR RACE : YES, THE GLOBE POLL MATTERS

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^ well ahead : John Connolly

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The University of New Hampshire finally released its poll of the Boston mayor race, and its message has locust-plagued the City’s spin doctors. Just about every candidate purports to believe that the poll is good for him — or her. If only !

It’s hard to believe that none of the twelve candidates is known by more than 68 % of the voters polled. Does that mean that the poll sample has reached well beyond the 100,000 “likely” voters who even the least bullish pundit thinks will turn out ? The poll also doesn’t say how many of its respondents came from which of the city’s 22 wards. We are left to guess what electorate was polled.

Nonetheless, the poll does not drop out of the sky. It accurately reflects, in fact, the money raising that we’ve been reporting — amounts and trends up or down in each candidate’s deposits. It also accords fairly well with what we glean from our observation of the various campaigns. We believe what the poll says. So here are the numbers for the top four :

John Connolly gets 15 % of the vote and is known by 68 % of the voters
Dan Conley gets 10 % and is known by 65 % of the voters
Marty Walsh gets 10 % and is known by 58 % of the voters
Charlotte Golar-Richie gets 10 % and is known by only 50 % of the voters.

Striking facts : (1) Though clearly less well known than Walsh or Conley, Golar-Richie polls equally with them (2) Connolly is measurably ahead of all three, well beyond the poll’s margin of error (3) Walsh has actually lost since the last UNH poll, in which he had 11 %. He has lost 10% of his vote, after a week of being slammed as a union guy — a loss well in line with the political rule that attacks can cost a candidate up to, but not likely more than, said ten percent.

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^ Marty Walsh : must prove on Primary day that he’s more than a union guy

Can Walsh recover and secure the second Final spot ? Of course he can. He has lots of money, is running excellent TV ads, and has a superb election day organization working hard and enthusiastically. He doesn’t need many more votes to put him close to Connolly.

Nonetheless, the poll shows that a full 25 % of its voters remain undecided. That’s a lot of undecideds only nine days before voting day. This is where Golar-Richie’s potential looks big. If she can get 10% of the vote with only 50% of voters knowing her, how hard will it be for her to get another 5 % from the 25 % who are undecided ? All she has to do is win the same percentage from them as she has won from the decided.

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^ Charlotte Golar-Richie : big potential to move up

Will 15% be enough to secure second spot ? It will not win the top spot. Surely John Connolly will win additional votes from that 25 % undecided. My guess is that he finishes with 21 %. As for the second spot, I will be surprised if whoever gets it wins more than 15 %. It is unlikely that a catch-up candidate will win more undecideds than a candidate who is strong AND perceived to be strong.

I will give Connolly an additional 6 %, Golar-Richie 5 %, Walsh an additional 5 % on the basis of a strong election day pull, and Conley only 4 %, because he polls only equal with Walsh although better known.

The poll shows that the other eight candidates are very much out of the running. Felix Arroyo, John Barros, and Rob Consalvo all win 6 %, Mike Ross 5 %, Bill Walczak 4 %, Charles Yancey 3 %, Charles Clemons 2 %. Arroyo is not known by 34 %, Consalvo by 50 %, Ross by 47 % ; the others poll even less well known. How likely is it that candidates so not-known will garner major vote numbers from the 25 % who remain undecided ? My experience is that the undecideds tend to vote for the most known candidates, not the less well known. Many are undecided because they don’t know any of the candidates, but just as many, likely, are undecided because they know several and like them all.

My guess for these following candidates is that Arroyo wins 7 % but not more. I am truly surprised to see in a poll that though he is better known than Walsh or Golar-Richie, he draws much less of a vote and has a higher unfavorable (21 %) than ANY of the other candidates. Ross wins 7 % — on the strength of substantial funds in his account. Barros wins 7 % (he has surged since the last poll, doubling his vote from 3 %). Consalvo wins 7 % (and maybe less; he has no money). Walczak wins 5 % (he is, after all, against casinos). Which leaves not much for the others.

My guess could be wrong and probably is wrong. But not by much, unless a major story breaks in the next six days or so. Marty Walsh is battling Charlotte Golar-Richie for the second spot on the November ballot. It’s his election day enthusiasm and reach versus her ability to win the same proportion of the undecideds a she has won of those who have chosen. And even then it looks oh so close. Maybe even a recount. It might be a very long night on Primary Day.

—- Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere