Tag / Mayoral Election

by hereandsphere

BOSTON MAYOR FINAL : CONNOLLY and WALSH ADDRESS BLACK COMMUNITY ANGER at CUPAC FORUM

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^ John Connolly : “our city is terribly segregated socially — kids of color see what’s available here and they say ‘no thank you.'”

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^ Marty Walsh ; “there will be no discrimination in my administration, i won;t stand for it !”

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Last night’s Forum at CUPAC (Community United PAC) in the heart of Boston’s Black Ward 14 was one of the most elevated forums this dramatic Mayor campaign has yet seen. Addressing — then being questioned by — a room full of Black police, the Vulcans (Black firefighters), and several articulate community activists, first Marty Walsh spoke masterfully, and then so did John Connolly.

To a room full of people who aren’t exactly thrilled to have two “Irish” candidates put upon them, and trying to express his ordinary-guy status in life, Walsh said, “Yesterday I was at a meeting with Jack Connors — you know ? because he’s Jack Connors — on the 60th floor. I was uncomfortable. Later I was at a meeting in Grove hall. I was more comfortable with them.” The people understood his point.

Said Connolly an hour later — not an ordinary guy but, of sorts, a teacher (which he was) : “diversity is in my heart…if we want to reach every corner of this city, every (city) department needs look like the city. it’s vital that teachers of color be there to mentor kids. It’s also good for my daughter !” He was roundly applauded.

Both men had almost always performed with authority at Forums during the Primary. So it was no surprise to see them take command at this Forum. Impressed I was, however, to see them stepping up their forensics to the next level. Each articulated a vision of the city he wants Boston to be; and each could command the support of almost everybody. Still, there were significant differences in the two candidates’ grasp of issues questioned of them by CUPAC board members and several Forum attendees.

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^ Former State senator Bill Owens addressed a question to Marty Walsh

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^ Minister Don (Muhammed) addressed a very blunt race justice question to Marty Walsh

Walsh was questioned very bluntly ; would he commit to full inclusion, in his cabinet, of people of color ? Yes, he would. Would he commit to appoint a black police commissioner ? No, he could not commit to that. Did he support an elected school committee ? No, he felt that the appointed school committee simply needed to be expanded to include every community. How did be feel about his “own white privilege” ? The question set Walsh aback — Connolly, with his wider cultural reach, could have answered better — but he made a vow as firmly as I have ever seen him : “there will be no discrimination in my administration. I won’t stand for it !” Would he bring back civics to the school curriculum ? Said Walsh, “it’s a disgrace that we don’t teach our kids the history of our nation, the world, and the neighborhoods. Yes I support civics !” Would he as Mayor see that the neighborhood gets connected to the city’s tourism ? He saw this question differently from as it was asked : “tourists yes, but we need to bring pride to our communities. Not just tourists.”

How at a Forum sponsored in part by Black police could the BPPA arbitration award not come up ? it did. Would Walsh, known to be a union guy, balance the interests of unions and the taxpayers ? Answered Walsh : “My union experience will enable me as mayor to negotiate at the table. My intention is to settle a contract before it ever gets there (to arbitration). I have asked the BPPA and the Mayor to go back to the table. (and yes), when I am making a decision as Mayor the residents will always come first !”

He was well and long applauded. Then it was john Connolly’s turn.

Connolly was questioned on the themes that are his. What was his plan to recruit more teachers of color ? “Recruit more principals of color too,” he answered. “reach out and have community based organizations recruit teachers and principals of color.”

Had he a plan to eliminate the current trend of youth violence ? Yes, said Connolly, a plan that includes everyone and every program, because youth violence has so many causes. He would prioritize the search for a new school superintendent and a new police commissioner; and would have a city-wide summit on sate neighborhoods. Was Connolly amenable to having vocational programs put into the city’s high schools ? Yes, Connolly was amenable and presented his plan to have each high school offer a unique vocational program; some “partnering” with unions, some with a university, others with a non-profit organization.

To all of these questions the audience heard Connolly’s responses politely. there was some applause — not much. Things changed, however, once the BPPA award was put to him for opinion. “I’m inclined to vote against it,” he said. “Look, I know that you guys work hard and deserve good pay. But I want to rethink the entire contract, get rid of the flaws. You guys work way too many hours” — he was interrupted here by much applause — “we need to correct those flaws in the contract.” Applause there was.

Then came the question that cinched Connolly’s presentation for many — and for me. “Too many young people of color,” said the questioner, “with talent, graduate and move away. They see the discrimination in the city’s social life. What will you do to keep young people of color here, with social opportunity as well as work opportunity ?” Answered Connolly ; “Our city is terribly segregated socially. How many people of color do you see in the restaurants, the night spots ? Not many. Kids of color see what’s available here and they say “no thank you.’ And the downtown discrimination ! Clubs that get cited ! Other cities get it; we need to change !”

The applause was loud and long.

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^ John Connolly : “other cities get it. we need to change !”

After it came more of the usual questions — the BRA, planning, affordable housing; and all were answered well and in detail, as Connolly, like Walsh, knows how; but for me, Connolly, by his savvy answer to the question on social discrimination, showed that he understands that he black community;s frustration with “two Irish candidates” is not simply political. it is social. It is cultural. Boston really Is a socially segregated city. Every night I see it, I feel it. It does need to end. talented young people of color are not going to stand for it and will take their talents elsewhere. And what of the white people they leave behind ? Are they any the more enriched for being separated from their contemporaries who happen to be of color — and maybe even of a different cultural bent ?

Connolly talked of how we get tourism in Boston “by luck, because we are an old city.” He is right ; we ARE lucky that way. But we need to become a destination city for who we are, not just for the history that happened here. Ending social discrimination in our city’s restaurants, night life, and friendships is the front line in this necessary battle.

Which is not to say that Marty Walsh’s heart is not in the right place. it is. Nobody in our politics has a stronger civil rights record than he. But the battle is not only political. it is moral and it is social. And this, John Connolly clearly gets.

—- Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere

by hereandsphere

BOSTON MAYOR FINAL : THE NUMBERS BEHIND MARTY WALSH’S BLACK COMMUNITIES PUSH

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^ planting his flag in precincts of color : Marty Walsh at Bartlett Street Garage (ward 9 Precinct 5)

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Marty Walsh’s big effort to win at least a majority of voters of color continues. He is getting advice from a respected operative who knows where Walsh should up, and he is showing up and doing it relentlessly. It is essential if Walsh intends to get into the win game for November. Why ? Let us look at the numbers. (I ask my readers’ indulgence on this. It’s a lot of statistics to read, but voting is measured in statistics. They matter totally.)

We have selected 40 precincts dominated by voters of color, by which we mean Black community voters, not Cape Verdean or Hispanic. 40 precincts is, I think, a lot fairer to both candidates than the Globe’s recent one-precinct story featuring a precinct that is far from typical. Here is the list, and the September 24th result. Keep in mind that by far the majority of voters picked Golar-Richie, Barros, Clemons, and even Arroyo.

Ward 12 Precincts 2 and 4
(along the West side of Blue Hill Avenue) ……….. Connolly 68 Walsh 55
Ward 12Precincts 6 and 8
(further up the west side of Blue Hill Avenue to Grove Hall)
…………………………………………………………….          Connolly 42 Walsh 37
Ward 12 Precincts 3 and 5
(along Warren Street along M. L. King Blvd) ……. Connolly 48 Walsh 46
Ward 12 Precincts 7 and 9
(south of M. L. King Blvd to Seaver Street) ……..  Connolly 93 Walsh 73
Ward 14 complete (14 precincts)
(easterly side of Blue Hill Ave from Fayston Street all the way to walk Hill Street, and across Blue Hill west to Harvard St from Talbot Ave south) .. Connolly 479 Walsh 371
Ward 18 Precincts 3 and 21 (Almont Field area) .. Connolly 125 Walsh 81
Ward 18 Precincts 2 and 4 (Mattapan Sq)………… Connolly 85 Walsh 77
Ward 18 Precinct 15 (along River Street, railroad underpass to Hungtington Ave)\
…………                                                                     Connolly 54 Walsh 29
Ward 10 Precinct 7 (Bromley Heath housing)…… Connolly 29 Walsh 27
Ward 11 Precincts 2 aand 3 (along Washington Street from Cedar Street to Columbus Ave)
…………                                                                     Connolly 60 Walsh 60
Ward 17 Precincts 1 and 3 (Washington Street Dorchester from Park Street south)
…………                                                                     Connolly 80 Walsh 108
Ward 17 Precincts 5 and 7 (Codman Sq. west) … Connolly 33 Walsh 40
Ward 17 Precincts 8 and 10 (Codman square South and Norfolk Street west)
………….                                                                   Connolly 84 Walsh 68
Ward 15 Precincts 2 and 8 (Richfield Street / Bowdoin-Geneva and Charles Street north of
Fields Corner ………………………………………….       Connolly 45 Walsh 71
TOTAL VOTE IN 40 PRECINCTS ………………….       Connolly 1357 Walsh 1188

On Final election day these 40 precincts will likely cast a total of about 16,000 votes. If so, it means that about 13,470 votes are up for grabs, with — if the September proportions hold — an advantage to Connolly of about eight points = 1100 votes. It’s a small advantage, but as the precinct numbers show, it was, except for areas close to Walsh’s Dorchester, a consistent one for Connolly. Given how poorly Walsh performed on Primary day outside of his South Boston / seaside Dorchester base, it’s a consistent 1100 vote loss he can’t afford. But there is more to it for him than just the 1100 votes. Look:

White candidates of good will often campaign in Black communities not simply to try to win Black voters’ votes. These candidates know that many white voters are watching them and are assured of these candidates’ progressive or reformist bona fides thereby. Walsh’s serious effort in Boston’s most Black voter precincts is thus an effort to impress white voters in neighborhoods dominated by progressive or reformist whites, all of which he lost decisively on September 24th. He can’t BE Felix Arroyo, or John Barros, and certainly can’t do Charlotte Golar-Richie; but he can try to impress their white, reformist allies.

Will it work ? It might. All depends on how strongly progressive or reformist voters rate winning voters of color’s confidence, compared to the campaign’s hottest agenda issues : school reform, jobs and the building boom, the bicycle/Hubway movement, restaurants and liquor licences, diversity in the police force and Mayor’s cabinet. Yet even if Walsh’s larger objective fails, the vigor of his campaign in the 40 precincts (and some others) will keep him from being beaten decisive therein by John Connolly. This is no minor factor. Historically, Boston’s communities of color have been much more easily drawn to patrician, even Brahmin reformers like Connolly than to candidates with rough edges and laborer’s hands, who Marty Walsh personifies.

Anybody who meets Walsh sees pretty quickly that he is as passionate a reformer as he is about Labor. The only question is, how many voters of color will meet him ? And believe him ? His success on Novemnber 5th probably depends on it.

—- Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere

by hereandsphere

BOSTON CITY COUNCIL PROFILE : ANNISSA ESSAIBI-GEORGE

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As many of you reading this already know, we put Annissa Essaibi George on Here and Sphere’s suggested” list for the Primary. Of her we said the following :

“a Boston Teacher’s Union (BTU) activist, Essaibi-George has the radiance, class, and articulation for which Boston Public school teachers are justly respected. We met her and liked her instantly, and mot just because she’s from Dorchester, with strong support in East Boston as well (where she teaches at East Boston High School). She runs a small business, and has time, somehow, to also be a neighborhood activist. We think no one will outwork her on the Council, and definitely her voice for the BTU is needed, even if the BTU itself sometimes misses the political bulls-eye.”

Everything we said of Essaibi-George then, we found to be just as true as we had observed of her. We met her in the home neighborhood, that part of Dorchester centered on St., Margaret’s Church. It’s where the late House Speaker John McCormack lived, and it’s where Marty Walsh was born and still lives. Essaibi-George was born and grew up here too — and keeps her campaign headquarters nearby as well. (And yes, it was open with volunteers busy when we met her.)

Despite the exotic name — her Father came from Tunisia; George is her married name — Essaibi-George is a total Dorchester kid. She has the accent and she knows the people. When we met her at the Sugar Box on “Dot Ave” she was just finishing an intense discussion with District Three Councillor Frank Baker, who also grew up close to St. Margaret’s and still lives there.

We and Baker said our hello’s, and he left for other business, and we asked Essaibi George (AEG below) the questions we always ask of Council candidates. The first question that Here and Sphere (HnS) asks is, “what unique qualities do you bring to the Council if elected ?”

This answer we already knew : as a Boston Teachers Union memeber and activist, she will be a voice for teachers : who are, after all, the focal point of Boston’s most costly and biggest single city department.

HnS : What school reforms do you see as needed ?

AEG : “A lot of Catholic schools end in the eighth grade. We need to ramp up what we are doing in our high schools so bthat parents feel better about sending kids to them. Not every kid gets the exam schools. Each of our high schools needs to be partnered with a union, a big business, or a university. To give the kids hands-on training connected to learning. Bio-tech firms need to be in this mix). More than once a year. Let our kids see what it’s like to work. Universities: let sophomores at BU (Boston University) come to the high schools and mentor our kids. Our kids need to know what it’s like to go to college. They need to see what it’s like to do the work (that’s expected of them) in college.”

HnS : The BRA — replace it or reform it ?

AEG : “Reform it.. Don’t get rid of it. Community opinion (should be) heavily weighted.”

HnS : Doesn’t that simply enable NIMBY ?

AEG : NIMBY comes from a neighborhood not being included. There has been undue dumping of low quality housing in some neighborhoods. And too many methadone clinics. These are often for-profit, and the more people they can run through their system, the more profit. And the neighborhood ends up having to deal with it.”

HnS : As for neighborhood development, what about liquor licenses ?

AEG : “Every neighborhood has different characteristics. Again, if the neighbors feel that a liquor license is needed or useful, then the City should be able to grant it. And if it isn’t needed, then not.”

HnS : Do you agree with what Marty Walsh said a couple months back, that there os a heroin epidemic in Boston ?

AEG : “There is a heroin epidemic and a mrthadone epidemic. We need to hold the methadone clinics resposnsible for the quality of their care. Care and supervision needed.”

That discussion that we mentioned her having with Councillor Baker was, so she told us, about when the Council hearing would be held to discuss the 25.5% BPPA arbitration award — Baker did not yet know when it would be held. The subject being mentioned, we of course had to ask — indeed, she insisted we do so :

HnS : “All right then, what IS your opinion of the BPPA award ? Can we assume it is the same as everybody else’s ?

AEG : “I support the award ! We’ve negotiated, and we should make the decision before it gets to arbitration. After 24 negotiating sessions we should be able to settle ! Otherwise why have negotiations ?”

On this resolution she and we disagree. But we were impressed to find her giving so forthrightly a contrary opinion to our own. She has a point : how can a labor negotiation not reach settlement after 24 bargaining sessions ? The question wants to answer itself. Besides, we actually prefer to see diversity of opinion on the Boston City Council. If all four at-Large Councillors agree on matters, why have four of them at all ?

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^ the candidate in West Roxbury, meeting voters at ward 20 Precincts 10 and 14, on Primary night

Essaibi-George finished seventh in the Primary. We’ll be looking to see her in the areas she is now focusing on, including, of course, West Roxbury and Jamiaca Plan. She has the active support of Catherine O’Neill, who was on our “suggested” list as well but finished ninth and thus missed “the top eight cut.” O’Neill comes from the opposite end of Dorchester and, as a television hostess and published playwright, has a different following from Essaibi-George’s but one that complements it. Did we mention that the Firemen of local 718 also support her ? They do.

—- Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere

NOTE : Our summer intern, Dave Morrison, contributed important research and reporting to this profile.

by hereandsphere

BOSTON MAYOR FINAL : MARTY WALSH REACHES OUT

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^ Speaking plainly and taking the heat : Marty Walsh at Talbot Avenue “Monday”

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Marty Walsh, one of the two finalists to become Boston’s next mayor, is making a major push to win the city’s communities of color. He is meeting voters in Dudley Square, along Blue Hill avenue, and in Mattapan, at bus stops, along shopping districts, in restaurants. If he wants to win in November, it’s something he must do and thus is spending a lot of these last six weeks of the campaign doing it. Last night he upped his push by holding a “Monday With Marty” at the old and storied Carver hall — now Russell Auditorium — on Talbot Avenue.

About 80 people, most of them from the neighborhood, showed up to “have a conversation” with Walsh. Many were female — a good sign for a candidate whose campaign has had a “burly white union guy” image. But a “union guy” he is; his campaign theme has been jobs and more jobs; and at Russell Auditorium he talked about jobs first : “Kids will stay in school if we give them a reason to stay in school,” Walsh said, about the high drop-out rate in the Talbot Avenue area and how it often leads to jail. “It’s an important message we send to the neighborhood. You go to jail, all the hopes of being a police officer, fire-fighter, teacher go out the window.”

Walsh was the Building Trades Council business manager, and his campaign has always stressed construction (and its jobs). Often this for Walsh translates to talk about constructing new schools, to replace schools built, as he always mentions, between 1870 and 1926. Thus at the Russell, after delivering the message, he promised, “I will establish an office of new school construction,” he said. “A billion-dollar plan. We will build those schools as community centers, used 18 hours a day.”

And of course he then talked about his 150 million dollar proposal to sell City hall and develop all of City hall plaza for commercial use — “adding all that money to the City tax rolls,” he pointed out. No one in the room missed the point : developing City Hall Plaza means construction jobs. Lots of them.

Walsh also stepped directly onto his opponent John Connolly’s school reform turf. Citing his work as a board member of a successful charter school, Walsh insisted : “I can prove that I am the candidate who will change the schools, not just talk about it.

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^ frustrated, but listening : the crowd at Walsh’s Talbot Avenue “conversation.”

It was a strong and articulate stump speech as Walsh has shown he knows how. He stressed is Dorchester roots and the skin color diversity of the district he represents, which, as he noted, “begins just down the street from here.” Still, the audience, albeit polite, proved, once the discussion portion of the event began, that it was not at all pleased with having to choose between Walsh and Connolly. To be quite specific, the Russell audience was sick and tired of having “Irish” mayors, and it said so, in words almost that blunt. In question after question, people let Walsh have it ; the lack of diversity on the police force, police disrespecting them when they call 911; guns everywhere in the community, but not in the white neighborhoods; the utter failure of Madison Park High School. One man — wearing a “Boston raider” t shirt, a man who easily, were he white, could have been a burly Marty Walsh Union guy — angrily pointed out that he never sees people of color in downtown construction jobs nor minority contractors. He challenged Walsh on what he was going to do about it, and about the lack of high-ranking policemen of color.

The scene reminded me a lot of what Robert Kennedy faced, almost 50 years ago, when, as United States Attorney General, he took himself to Black Community meetings to listen to — be insulted by — the frustrations and anger of people of color about what was going on in the South — and in the North too. It made me pretty upset to find that the Russell crowd was making the same points, almost in the same heated expressions, as I had hoped we had put paid to back in RFK’s day. Obviously we have not put paid to the existence of skin color discrimination and divisions.

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^ palpable : the confrontation of community and candidate

Walsh listened to it all, respectfully, no sign of anger on his face; almost certainly he agreed with everything the people were saying. He answered every question as best he could. He said much that needed to be said. And if his eloquence did not rise to that of RFK, that’s no criticism, for how many politicians these days do speak at RFK’s level of moral fervor ? Still, Walsh’s even tone and plain language, if it did not inspire the audience, engendered respect.

Will respect be enough to bring to Walsh a majority of votes from Boston’s most economically isolated communities of color ? John Connolly has long been active in Boston’s neighborhoods of-color and has expanded his presence therein all through the campaign. His patrician presence has long — since the days of Boston Brahmin reformers — found more favor among Boston ‘s people of color than Walsh’s rough accents, which, to many Boston people of color mean the old school segregation racism. That memory is unfair to Walsh; and his dogged outreach to Boston people of color is changing minds. But he isn’t, as was RFK, the brother of a President. As for John Connolly, he’s the son of a former Secretary of state and a District Court System ‘s chief judge. If to Boston’s people of color, Walsh exemplifies building trades jobs and a hug and handshake of heart to heart solidarity — a feeling that Walsh proves every day — Connolly exemplifies entry, for people of color, to the board rooms and “tables of power” where the highest aspirations are decided.

Walsh’s outreach is a superb portent for Boston’s political future. And that is how Walsh put it at the Russell : “it’s not about me being Mayor. it’s about the future of Boston.” There he spoke truth, as he almost always does.

My feeling is that Walsh will have to win the votes of Boston’s people of color almost one family at a time and that he must do it if he’s to get into the win game. We’re talking 25 % of the total final vote. He has less than five weeks to make it work.

—- Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere

UPDATE October 2, 2013 at 1.00 AM : earlier this afternoon Marty visited the Bartlett Garage art works and met many of the makers. This is one of Roxbury’;s best-liked secret places, and it says a lot about the canny advice he is now getting — from someone who knows — about where to go and who to see in “the ‘Bury” and along Blue Hill avenue. Tonight he’ll be at the MAMLEO Forum at 61 Columbia Road. The outreach continues at full force.

by hereandsphere

BOSTON MAYOR FINAL : MARTY WALSH ON THE HOOK

https://malegislature.gov/Bills/188/House/H2467

Bill 2467

^ The State House on Beacon Bill : where H. 2467, “By Mr. Walsh of Boston, a petition…” looms mightily over the Mayor election

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Just this morning I opined about the impact that the arbitrator’s large pay raise award to the BPPA might have on the mayor’s race. Little did I know ! Only a few hours after I wrote, Marty Walsh declared his opposition to the size of the award — a perfectly reasonable opinion — only to have John Connolly call a 4.30 PM press conference on the matter.  At which…

Connolly struck a body blow : that Marty Walsh, as a legislator, had sponsored and filed a bill, House 2467, by whose provisions arbitrator awards, of the exact kind now at issue, would be binding even on City Councils. And thus that Walsh’s stated opposition to the award was, in effect, opposition to himself.

The law on municipal employee arbitrations now is that arbitrator’s awards to such employees are subject to approval by the City Councils of those municipalities. If the Council doesn’t approve, back to the arbitrator goes the pay dispute. Marty Walsh’s bill would take that power away from City Councils. An arbitrator’s award would be final.

Walsh tried to explain that in fact his legislation would make an arbitrator’s award binding upon Councils only to the extent that city finances could bear it. But as Connolly pointed out, Walsh’s legislation does not contain that proviso. Though the bill’s language directs the arbitrator to factor several such concerns into his award — and says nothing about HOW the arbitrator does such “factoring” — once his award is made, that’s it.

I was sitting with a friend of mine who’s a Marty Walsh supporter — he even has two lawn signs for Walsh — when the Connolly press conference broke. My friend turned to me and said, “well that’s that. I’m not for him !” I suspect those words were said quite often in Boston late this afternoon.

It’s a very tight spot for Walsh to be in. His own legislation — H 2467 starts off saying “By Mr. Walsh of Boston, a petition…that provision be made for binding arbitration for fire fighters and police officers” — casts in stone an arbitration award that has the whole city up in arms over its size.

He has some serious, serious explaining to do — not the spin syrup that he put out today — and it had better come quickly.

Because in two days or so the City Council hears the BPPA award details and votes on it. And John Connolly will be part of that hearing.

— Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere

Afterthought :  Connolly’s revelation about House Bill 2467 casts a dark light on a Walsh campaign that has looked, to me, to be heading in a Romney-like direction. Just as Mitt Romney won passage of Romneycare, then proceeded to turn his back on his achievement, as a presidential candidate, so Walsh, whom Labor support lifted into a first place Primary finish, has lately taken to sounding like a chamber of commerce, Club for Growth-type business-recruiting Texas governor. It’s been curious to watch this gradual transformation; one wondered how or even if Walsh could pull it off. It seemed possible, Now it looks hyperbolic..

His campaign is also a case study in why State legislators in the Boston delegation don’t often run for mayor and, when they do, don’t get elected. With H. 2467, Walsh is using the power of the state to override the power of the City. Well and good for the labor unions whose champion he is; not so good for his appealing, now, to the entire City.

Walsh needs to rethink his campaign to;p to bottom, and fast. He has much to offer that John Connolly is temperamentally unsuited to match. His passion is infectious, His respect for everyone palpable, exemplary, But Walsh has to be a superior helmsman as well as a rock solid shipmate. Right now he has lost the helm. Connolly has it.

NOTE : I updated this story at 9.16 AM on Sunday 9/29/13.

by hereandsphere

BOSTON MAYOR FINAL : WHAT THE TWO NEED TO DO, AND WHY

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^ John Connolly — Marty Walsh : two irish names but men who could hardly be more different

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Who will win on November 5th and become Boston’s next mayor ? The punditry has already begun. Most of what we’ve read talks about “communities color” and how on Tuesday Boston voted once again for two Irish white guys who now need to find a way to win said communities’ votes. True; but very simplistic. There are a lot more votes that Walsh or Connolly need to win. 64 % of those who voted on Tuesday voted for somebody else. Many November voters did not vote at all. Probably as much as 80 % of those who will vote on November 5th did not vote for the two white irish guys.

What must Walsh and Connolly do about it ? And how do I assess the obstacles they face ? Here goes:

1.Marty Walsh on Tuesday was pretty much a locally dominant winner; John Connolly on Tuesday was fairly much a broadly based vote-getter. Walsh’s vote was passionate, Connolly’s cool. Cool votes count as much as hot ones.

Despite his first place finish, Walsh’s challenge is immense. Though he swept cleanly the precincts of his seaside base — from South Boston to Savin Hill to Florian hall — he turned out 45 % to as much as 71 % of the voters in those precincts, by dint of a vast field organization of door knockers. That card is now played. He can increase his base vote by some, but not by a lot. Yes, he won as much as 77 % of the vote in his “base.” But 77 % of 80% of all voters in his base, say, isn’t that much more than 77 % of 71%.

As for outside his base, Walsh barely registered in some very key places. Take a look :

( a ) Ward 5 (Back bay, Beacon Hill, Fenway ) ——— Walsh 224 Connolly 1426
South End & Downtown (Ward 3 Pcts 6,7,8
and ward 4 Pcts 1-6, Wd 8 Pcts 1-3, ward 9 Pcts 1-2)………………………………………………………                               Walsh 545 Connolly 1909

TOTAL DOWNTOWN AREA ………….          Walsh 769 Connolly 3335

In the Primary, these precincts turned out an average of about 22 % to 25 % of their registered vote. In November these precincts always turn out in much bigger numbers. Even an increase from 25 % to just 40% — there will likely be more — would raise Connolly’s advantage over Walsh from 2564 votes to over 4000 votes. at 50% turnout the margin would increase to 5128 votes.

( b ) Ward 20 (West Roxbury and much of Roslindale)
………………………………………………………………… Walsh 1763 Connolly 4074

This doesn’t on the face of it look so bad for Walsh in Connolly’s home neighborhood. But looks deceive. Connolly faced a strong other candidate, Dan Conley, living in Ward 20 too and taking about 2500 votes (I am estimating, the City of Boston Ward and Precinct unofficial results for some reason leave Conley out). In addition, Ward 20 turned out 49% of its huge number of voters. In November, Ward 20 can turn out at least 70% — 17,000 to 18,000 voters — and Dan Conley will not be on the ballot. At 17,000 votes, a Walsh 3500 Connolly 13,500 result is entirely feasible. Even a more likely Walsh 5000 Connolly 12,000 result would give Connolly a larger margin than the entire vote turnout in Walsh’s home Ward 16.

Add a conservative Connolly margin of 5000 in the downtown areas, and he now has a bigger margin — 12,000 — over Walsh than the likely entire turnout from Wards 16 and 7, Walsh’s two strongest Wards.

( c ) East Boston, Brighton, Ward 19 (Centre Street, Jamaica Plain; plus a small part of Roslindale)

Even with the support of State Rep. Liz Malia, Walsh fared not so hot in Jamaica Plain. In East Boston, Connolly had the endorsement of State Rep. Carlo Basile. Basile delivered. In Brighton, to which neither he nor Connolly had any local claim, Connolly was the clear winner :

Ward 1 ………………………………………………….. Walsh 762 Connolly 1214

Curiously, in this once banner “Italian” Ward, Rob Consalvo did not dominate Tuesday. His vote total barely matched Connolly’s. Turnout, too, was shockingly small : about 28 % . In November, all this will change. Historically, East Boston has consciously “delivered” the bigger part of 6000 to 7000 votes to a preferred, usually Irish, contender. It was famously so in 1959, when Ward 1’s vote made the difference in John Collins’s upset win over the much favored John E. Powers. In 2013 it is unlikely that Ward 1’s top politicals can “deliver” the Ward to anybody; yet with a much higher turnout — that much the ward’s politicals can do — and Rob Consalvo out, plus a clear preference for Connolly, as it stands today he will carry “Eastie” by about 1400 votes : say 4200 to 2800.

Ward 21 …………………………………………………………. Walsh 362 Connolly 631
Ward 22 …………………………………………………………. Walsh 818 Connolly 832
TOTAL ………………………………………………………………..      . 1180                  1463

Brighton’s turnout was tiny. In Primaries it always is. In November, the turnout might double and still be small. Connolly’s advantage isn’t much, but it is an advantage and takes away from Walsh a possible chance to cut Connolly’s huge vote margins in the Wards I have already assessed.

Ward 19 ………………………………………………………. Walsh 542 Connolly 1007

Many Ward 19 votes went to other candidates on Tuesday. Still, unless they break decisively to Walsh, and adding a modestly higher turnout — to maybe 55 % — than Tuesday’s estimable 42 %, Connolly still stands to win the Ward by a good 1500 votes. Not a lot, but at this point Connolly doesn’t need a lot more.

All of the above leaves it — with one exception; see below — up to Boston’s “communities of color,” concentrated in Wards 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, part of 13 and 15, 17, and much of 18. It’s a lot of the City’s voters, maybe 25 % — greater, taken together, than Ward 20. On Tuesday, Walsh and Connolly won almost an equal share of what little vote in these communities did not go to Charlotte Golar Richie, John Barros, and Felix Arroyo. If on November 5th communities color divide their vote equally, Connolly almost certainly wins. What are the chances that Walsh can turn a palpable majority of voters of color in his direction ? As of today, I cannot tell. My friends think that a decision here will not be made until after one or two of the upcoming three debates. I think they are right.

But let us say that even after the debates, Boston’s voters of color poll equally for Walsh and Connolly. Does Walsh still have a chance ? Yes he does.

I’ve left one big region out of the discussion : the part of Ward 18 that Mayor Menino lives in. it is said that Menino cannot stand John Connolly, and Connolly’s loss to Walsh in Hyde Park and Readville bears out what is said :

Ward 18 Pcts 9, 10, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 23)
————————————————————————– Walsh 647 Connolly 542

In Menino’s home precinct (20), Walsh beat Connolly 97 to 34. Of course the overwhelming majority of votes in the precinct went to local hero Rob Consalvo. He won about 2500 votes in the whole region. It is assumed, probably correctly, that Consalvo will support Marty Walsh. If I assign Consalvo’s 2500 local votes three to one to Walsh, and increase the turnout from 45 % to 60 %, Walsh wins Menino’s home area by about 1800 votes.

With this 1800 vote victory, a 10 point margin among communities of color, some increase of vote in his home area (South Boston especially), and a strong debate showing leading to a decent majority among voters who did not vote at all on Tuesday, Marty Walsh can win the day. But it will not be easy.

Marty is respected by all who know him, has a civil rights record second to no one, and has the utter loyalty of labor (other than the Teachers Union). He needs to run an almost perfect campaign. He needs to tell us about his 16-year record at the state House. He needs to show that he speaks the language of business, and its plans, as authoritatively as he talks that of labor.

Walsh needs badly to expand his reach at least into areas where he wasn’t blown out : Tom Menino’s half of Ward 18; Jamaica Plain; Brighton (Ward 22); the North End; and Ward 10 (Mission Hill precincts). He would be well advised to borrow from Dan Conley’s excellent, neighborhood-oriented recommendations list of administrative reforms. He needs to get Felix Arroyo and Rob Consalvo aboard.

John Connolly’s strategy should be “steady as you go.” Continue to do exactly what he has been doing, but also present a convincing plan for administrative reform — Dan Conley’s neighborhood by neighborhood list, but also reform of the Police and Fire Departments. Connolly needs to get some sleep before the debates and come out passionate and and in command as he already has shown he can do.

Can Walsh do it ? Yes he can. But John Connolly is no punching bag. He can do it too. He speaks as eloquently as Walsh does, seems to understand the culture better, and draws voters of all ages and both genders much more readily than Marty Walsh has so far shown.

It is going to be a terrific six weeks, isn’t it ?

—- Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere

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BOSTON PRIMARY DAY : WHAT IT MEANS

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^ And now the political theater begins : Marty Walsh

112,804 Boston people cast ballots in yesterday’s Preliminary Election. That’s way less than the 157,041 who voted in 1967’s equally intense mayor primary, but it IS more than voted in 2009’s FINAL. It’s a good number, and not far short of the 119,000 we predicted would vote.

You all know by now the result. Marty Walsh, with 20,838 votes, made good on his election-eve claim that he would “top the ticket.” John Connolly finished with 19,420 votes — in second place. Charlotte Golar-Richie finished third — 3900 votes back of Connolly; Dan Conley finished 2800 votes behind her, and Felix Arroyo took the fifth spot some 1900 votes behind Conley. John Barros finished a close sixth, 750 votes short of Arroyo. Consalvo and Ross finished seventh and eighth.

For the 12 primary hopefuls, it was a polite campaign. No one wanted to go negative and this excite the others’ supporters to come out in larger numbers. Indeed, that 112,804 people turned out to vote in a love fest is a credit to the civic-mindedness of some 30 % of Boston’s registered voters. It was far different in 1967, when there was passion and drama all over the campaign, anger between candidates, riots at times in the city, and unrest the rest of the time.

We can do without the riots, but everything else that made 1967 such a Shakespearean campaign we need plenty of. We need debate, we need anger; we need the two remaining candidates and their supporters to go at it hammer and tong. Because Walsh and Connolly really are very different men with very different agendas and support bases. None of it should be glossed over with pretty talk and grins. If the huge differences between these men do not collide with the sound of shoulder pads and helmets clanging, so to speak, it will man hiding these differences in the closet, to taint the administration of whomever wins, and to make the winner’s agenda distrusted from the start.

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^ thespians all : john Connolly

As for analysis, here’s how we see yesterday :

1. The “base” vote. Walsh did much better in his South Boston/Dorchester “base” than Connolly did in his West Roxbury/Roslindale homeland. But Walsh did not have to compete with a seriously strong candidate in his base, as Connolly did with Dan Conley. Had Walsh had to give up 30 % of his home vote to a competitor, as did Connolly, Charlotte Golar-Richie would be in the Final today, not Walsh.

2. East Boston, Charlestown, North End, Downtown. These areas were to be John Connolly’s trump, his claim to city-wide strength, and so they were. He beat Marty Walsh convincingly in the region. But the turnout here was small. Connolly’s field organization did not do the job here that it should have. Had turnout in this region come even close to that in Ward 20, Connolly would have finished convincingly in first place.

3. Communities of Color. Despite valiant efforts, neither Walsh nor Connolly broke 75 votes in any precinct of Wards 8,11, 12, or 14. Nor in most precincts of wards 9, 10, 17, and 18. This entire region — maybe 25% of the City — now stands up for grabs, with no obvious inclination in either man’s direction.

That said, John Barros should be on John Connolly’s first-call list right now, and Felix Arroyo on Marty Walsh’s. The supporters of each have a natural place in these respective campaigns. Charlotte Golar-Richie’s support, however, is the prize — and the mystery. Her agenda fits, more or less, with both Walsh’s and Connolly’s.

4. School Transformation. It was Connolly’s mantra, and it carried a lot of weight. But not enough. As Walsh well said on election night, “I am not the one-issue candidate in this election !” Connolly should immediately, if not sooner, grab the administrative reform issue that made Dan Conley a serious contender. Connolly should in particular pick up Conley’s brilliant series of neighborhood brochures listing specific administrative reforms, most of which hit the bulls-eye. Conley and Connolly are natural allies. If Connolly hasn’t called Dan already, he should do so NOW.

5. Unions. Huge, football fan-like support from union activists gave Marty Walsh a big Primary day field force. They got their vote to the polls. Nonetheless, Union support is not a strength for Walsh going forward. Labor activists can get 20,000 voters to the polls. They cannot get the 80,000 or so which will likely be needed to win in November. Unions generate strong opposition even in progressive Boston. No one liked the pressure the Firemen brought to bear on the City budget at their contract time; and the Big Dig, albeit an economic boon, is not forgotten for huge cost overruns in part generated by Union wages. Personally, I have no problem at all with union wages; hard working people deserve great pay. But the Unions that negotiate such pay often use tactics that alienate large swaths of people — who do not forget. Walsh needs badly to convince those who did not vote for him that he is not Walter Reuther.

That said, the construction workers and the Firemen at least have strong ties to Boston people, ties that remain, at least in part, because these Unions are led by shrewd political leaders (of whom Walsh himself was one). The same cannot be said of the Boston Teachers Union (BTU). It endorsed two losing candidates — Felix Arroyo, justifiably; Rob Consalvo much less so — and now stands out in the cold. Neither Connolly nor Walsh are likely to enact the BTU’s agenda, especially its opposition to charter schools — schools backed by a huge majority of Boston voters — a meaningful longer school day, giving principals power to choose their teachers, or the seniority rules that caused 2012’s “teacher of the year’ to be laid off because he was junior in time on the job. Had the BTU acted shrewdly — by endorsing Connolly, for making the schools a prime issue, saying something like “we differ with Connolly on how, but we agree with him on the need for reform” — it would now be in a strong position to see some of its agenda included in the Connolly package. Didn’t happen.

6. A majority of the November winner’s vote will come from people who DID NOT vote for him yesterday. How does a candidate win the votes of those who did not choose him first ? One principle cries out : these voters will now vote for the candidate they DIS-like less. Thus the need that I presented earlier, to run a negative campaign; to DIFFER with the opponent, passionately. And there is plenty to differ with, for both Connolly and Walsh. Plenty on many fronts.

—- —- —-

A Final word from me : the campaign trend that I most reject is already developing : both campaigns are becoming institutionalized. Television theater. Connolly’s already had done so. Now Walsh’s too. This I hate. It makes the campaigns look phony and sound plastic. We have enough Plastic Men in our politics. I do not want to see Walsh or Connolly standing on a stage with an American flag behind them, like a President — which they aren’t — and what looks like a diversity audience at an Oprah show. Diversity is wonderful, but in such calculated displays it looks like window dressing. Let’s see Connolly or Walsh on stage by themselves, with no flags or fooforaw, just them, speaking to us all out in the crowd, on the street like a jury of 175,000.

— Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere

by hereandsphere

BOSTON MAYOR RACE : TIME TO CHOOSE

The Primary takes place Tuesday. The deciding time is now.

To help you decide, we now present what in our view is the strongest argument for each of the nine candidates who have impressed us. Some carry more authority than others; this is inevitable, for people do differ. Still, all nine hopefuls deserve support. How MUCH support is for YOU to decide.

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1. John Connolly.

He owns the campaign’s number one issue — public school reform — and articulates an encompassing plan with passion and detail; a plan which he connects convincingly to two other issues that really matter, with solutions that he articulates persuasively : better jobs and public safety in the neighborhoods. He has broad support all across the city. He has a hip understanding of the new, burgeoning Downtown. If school transformation, cultural awareness, and support from every corner of Boston are your idea of what the next Mayor should be, John Connolly is your man.

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2. Marty Walsh

If John Connolly is a cool dude, Walsh is a hot button, a candidate of urgency. No candidate in the race matches Walsh’s civil rights record. His supporters embrace him with a passion no other candidate approaches. Walsh owns the campaign’s second biggest issue : the Downtown Building boom — which he wants extended by school construction, the potential East Boston casino, and an entirely redeveloped City Hall Plaza. He has the most forward plan for recruiting business es to locate in Boston.

Curiously, for a man so committed to a booming Downtown, Walsh seems culturally very unhip, even unaware. And his education plan seems limited compared to Connolly’s, though it has its strong points, especially on emotional and social education — very cutting edge curriculum items. Walsh has the backing of most Boston labor unions — but not the Teachers — and this has hurt him as much as helped.

Still, if extending Boston’s construction boom, bringing in new business, and having a Mayor who doesn’t view union workers as the opposition are your agenda, Marty Walsh gets your vote.

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3. Dan Conley.

He’s received almost no endorsements — Connolly has almost all of them — but he doesn’t really need endorsements. Conley is known well already and, as Suffolk County District Attorney, he represents and has been elected by the entire City. He’s even less hip than Walsh — is exactly whom you’d expect to find at a VFW Post or an Elks lodge — but makes up for it by having as progressive a record on staff diversity as anyone seeking to be our Mayor. No candidate would be tougher on reform of the City’s Police and Fire departments — both much needed; Conley displays a better knowledge of City administration, and its failures, than any of his rivals in this race. He doesn’t like casinos much but isn’t obsessed with stopping them. If thorough reform of the City’s various administrative departments is your top priority, Conley gets your vote.

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4. Charlotte Golar-Richie.

She is of course the only woman in the race and has become the top choice of Boston’s African-american political community. (Note, however, that the Caribbean Political action Committee endorsed John Connolly.) Golar-Richie has authoritative experience in Boston government, as Tom Menino’s Director of Neighborhood Development, represented Dorchester’s least politically active ward (15) in the Legislature, and worked in Governor Patrick’s administration. She has gained the support of State Representatives Moran and Michlewitz; they are actively campaigning on her behalf. Golar-Richie’s advocacy of issues often lacks depth or detail, and it’s not clear what her top priorities are — other than advancing women to top positions in the Police and Fire departments — but her broad base of support, ability to command Boston’s African-American politics, and advocacy for women moves you, Golar-Richie is your vote on Tuesday.

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5. Felix G. Arroyo.

We have known Arroyo since he was a small child growing up as the namesake son of Felix D. Arroyo, Massachusetts’ s most successful politician of Latino heritage. Arroyo has his Dad’s passion for raising the disadvantaged and the poor up into the economic mainstream; they — and the City’s children who find themselves set back in school because at home they speak languages first other than English — are his top priority for attention. He also advocates assuring disadvabtaged kids a sure connection to better jobs, and he seeks the formation of new businesses (his “invest in Boston” program, whereby banks in which Boston deposits its billion dollars are required to lend to and invest in local businesses first, has just been voted favorably by the City Council).  He speaks of securing crime plagued neighborhoods from youth violence, which he rightly sees as the result of lacking opportunity. If attention to raising people usefully out of poverty is your first priority for Boston’s next mayor, Arroyo is your man.

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6. John Barros and Mike Ross.

They’re a matched pair, really. The campaign’s two smartest and most visionary candidates forsee a very different Boston than the City we live in today, a City radically evolved in transportation, working wages, environmental green, effective housing plans for every income level, and smart entrepreneurs — all of which both men articulate eloquently and in very practical detail. The mayoralty of either would be an adventure. Hardly any City department is deployed to anything like the City they want to bring about. Voting for Barros or Ross, rather than Connolly — who would likely be the more cautious choice for voters considering these two men — depends upon how successful you think Barros or Ross would be in making their visionary Boston happen. Many voters will decide that adventure into tomorrow is needed right now. They will want to vote for Barros or Ross.

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7. Rob Consalvo and Bill Walczak.

I’ve paired these two very different candidates because both have made a single issue their campaign gravatar, and those for whom either man’s single issue is the vital necessity for Boston may want to give that issue greater attention by so voting. For Walczak the issue is stopping casinos– in particular both the East Boston casino AND the casino project planned for Everett, right next door to Charlestown — and building an East Boston “innovation district” instead. (why we can’t have both, Walczak does not say.). If you agree that a casino in Boston or Everett needs be stopped so badly that all other issues come second, Bill Walczak is your man. For Consalvo the issue is advocating the Boston Teachers’ Union (BTU) plan for Boston school reform : first principle of which is to curb, if not end, charter schools. There is much in the BTU reform plan — a ten page manifesto well worth reading from top to bottom — that commands support, especially its commitment to give all students, including the difficult kids, equal access to core curriculum attention well beyond the MCAS requirements. No one should plan a school reform that does not command the enthusiasm of school teachers, whose job is so exhausting, exciting, demanding. Those who want Boston school teachers to be heard at school reform time may think the surest way of getting there is to vote for Consalvo.

8.There are three other candidates on the ballot, good men all — Charles Yancey, Charles Clemons, and David Wyatt — but none has drawn significant voter support, mostly because each has run a limited campaign often lacking in depth beyond a demonstrable passion for issues that the major campaigns have not focused upon. You may decide to vote for one of these men. They all deserve attention to their issues : Yancey, his long experience and knowledge; Clemons, making the City administration “look like the City”; Wyatt, his skepticism about the ability of City government to do much better than it has. For us, the significance of their candidacies lies in their infusing their issues into the campaign discussion. A vote, though, seems one infusion too far in such a deep field of strong candidates.

—- Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere

by hereandsphere

BOSTON MAYOR RACE : WHAT THE THREE POLLS TELL US

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^ John Connolly : the school issue is his and very possibly the election

—- — —

You’ve all seen the three new polls published on Boston’s Mayor campaign. (If you haven’t seen them, go look.) Taken together, they show the following percents of vote for the top nine contenders :

Connolly at 14 to 16
Walsh at 10 to 12
Conley at 8 to 12
Golar-Richie at 10
Arroyo at 6 to 8
Consalvo at 6 to 8
Barros at 3 to 6
Walczak at 4 to 6
Ross at 5
Undecided : 19 to 22

There isn’t, or shouldn’t be, much doubt about what these numbers tell us :

1. John Connolly will be in the Final. He appears very much in command of the race. School transformation is his issue, it’s the voters’ number one issue too, and he articulates his agenda for schools with authority, detail, conviction, and a convincing tie-in to the other two major issues, jobs and public safety. His field organization — “ground game” in this campaign’s argot — is broadly based, in very diverse communities of the city, and well versed in what field organizations are supposed to in a primary : get out the vote. Plus, his Mom’s from Charlestown. That, dear readers, is authenticity.

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^ Marty Walsh : the voice of Urgency

2. Marty Walsh should be in the Final, because his issue is a clear alternative one to Connolly’s : keeping the construction boom going in Boston — and expanding its reach, because it furthers economic development and creates good jobs. Unfortunately for Walsh, his issue is a smaller one than Connolly’s. There are 58,000 public school parents in Boston and lots more who would be public school parents if they could perceive the city’s public schools as good enough. There are far fewer than 58,000 construction jobs in city. The particularity of Walsh’s vision threatens to keep him out of second place — more on that below; but, fortunately for his chances, he is backed by a field organization as large as Connolly’s (and maybe larger) and passionately dedicated to this campaign’s “candidate of Urgency.”

It also helps that he is a true son of Boston’s land of on-street parking and rows of three deckers. That, dear readers, is grit and lumber !

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^ Dan Conley : administrative reform may not be sexy enough to win a spot in the final

3. Dan Conley might edge past Walsh to the second spot because as Suffolk County District Attorney (and former District 5 Councillor) he is already a proven city-wide administrator who speaks in authoritative detail — and with conviction — about the reforms he would bring to city administration, the police and fire departments most of all. He has tons of money and a field organization as dependable — if less passionate or diverse — as Walsh’s. His problem is that city administration reform isn’t an issue that hits voters where they live, as do schools and jobs. A Mayor can always hire an administrative reformer.

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^ Charlotte Golar-Richie : political history is her mother earth

4.Charlotte Golar-Richie has risen in the polls. She now contends. This she has done by dint of being the only woman in the candidate list — something she rarely neglects to mention — and the most prominent of color. This is, oddly, a candidate of identity politics, a winner 30 and 40 years ago but probably not today. Voters of color give her strong backing, but by no means overwhelming. Today they want results, not image. Golar-Richie is also hindered by her forensics. At Forums and on the stump she sometimes articulates a vision, sometimes not. Even at her best the vision seems flavorless — a less punitive version of Conley’s “I Will Reform City Administration.” Uneven articulation of mild reform excites no one, and thus Golar-Richie’s field organization — and her voters — seem lacking the necessary force to “get out the vote” on Primary day. That is why she polls in fourth place.

UPDATE : as expected, Golar-Richie today received endorsement by State Senator Sonia Chang-Diaz and state Rep. Russell Holmes. BUT … State Rep. Byron Rushing endorsed Felix Arroyo….

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^ Particularist candidates ; Felix arroyo (above) and Rob Consalvo

5.Felix Arroyo and Rob Consalvo seem matched pairs. as Consalvo’s poll has declined, Arroyo’s has increased. They now poll the same. Each has the Boston Teachers Union (BTU) endorsement. Each man has a campaign theme that no rival encroaches upon : Arroyo’s theme is a “pathway out of poverty,” through full-day schools to jobs which, with union organization behind them, can pay well. (Arroyo never fails to mention how as an organizer of janitors, he got their pay boosted from $ 9.00 an hour with no benefits to $ 16,.00 an hour with full benefits.) He also talks “invest in Boston,’ a program — just now voted favorably by the City Council — to require banks in which the City keeps its money (a billion dollars) to invest in Boston businesses. Consalvo, meanwhile, has taken to being the BTU’s voice on school reform, an agenda quite unlike Connolly’s, one which takes the risky position of defending Boston Public school performance. The problem for both men, and why they poll at only 6 to 8 percent, is that the voters either do not agree (Consalvo) or are to narrow a constituency (Arroyo) to get either candidate close to a second place Primary finish. Limited visions with limited constituencies may well exhibit great passion ; both Consalvo and Arroyo have that from their supporters. But a passionate vote counts no more than a coolly reflective one, just as the keys on a laptop only punch one letter at a time no matter how hard your finger hits them.

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^ Brilliance : Mike Ross (and John Barros) speak vividly of tomorrow. But the elect is today.

6. Mike Ross and John Barros poll lower still. The two men are the brightest and most progressive visionaries of all the candidates. No one speaks more eloquently. None has a surer grasp of what city life will be tomorrow. So what is the problem ? First, neither man leads a large constituency. Ross’s Back Bay / Beacon Hill / Mission Hill District has little in common, economically or culturally, with the rest of the City. Barros is a hero to the denizens of Dudley Square, which the organization that he founded has revitalized; to the citizens of Uphams’ Corner, where he lives; and to Boston’s Cape Verdean community. But even if you add up all three of Barros’s bases, it’s small potatoes compared to the city as a whole. And this is his first race ever for elected office.

7.The 19 % undecided. It’s still the largest number of any in the three polls. theoretically it’s large enough to anoint or eliminate anyone. That will not happen. undecided voters do one of the following : ( a ) not vote at all ( b ) vote for a perceived winner, because they know him or her best anyway or ( c ) decide on the issues, among several who they are considering. The first group doesn’t count. The second trends to John Connolly. the third will likely divide in many directions. My guess is that the undecideds won’t change the current poll very much. They’ll simply fatten its numbers.

—- Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere

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BOSTON MAYOR RACE : A TALE OF TWO CITIES

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^ John and Meg Connolly — and an array of Boston Public School parents — at last night’s Elks hall rally

—- —- —-

The candidates for Mayor of Boston talk all the time about bringing the city together or about everybody, in whatever neighborhood, wanting the same thing. This is true. Yet campaigns are about differences. Campaigns don’t alleviate those differences, they emphasize them. Thus the differences magnified in the campaigns of this election’s two perceived leaders, Marty Walsh and John Connolly.

At his “Mondays With Marty” events — “community conversations” in the argot of today — Marty Walsh has drawn hundreds of listeners to his message of “best practices” education, improving the Downtown Boston economy, fighting the “heroin epidemic,” and setting up an office of diversity in City Hall so that the City’s departments “reflect what Boston looks like.” Walsh speaks passionately at these Mondays, if a bit quickly, and with a sincerity that touches everyone who hears him. Yet from East Boston to Dudley square in Roxbury and West Roxbury to Charlestown, Walsh’s Mondays seem to draw mostly people age 35 to 50 — the peak working years — who speak of, or look like, harried lives. He’s every bit the union workers’ candidate that he has been labeled as, and though he draws all kinds of work-age people, not only union workers by any means, the tones of voice of those who address questions to him is often gravelly, even anxious, the voices of people who work with their hands or whose work is always hands-on, and as hurried as is Walsh’s speaking.

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^ urgency : a full house at Marty Walsh’s Haley house “Monday” conversation (Council candidate Jack Kelly center top)

Walsh’s Mondays are front-line work. There’s an air of “now” in them. As much as Walsh speaks of future directions, his “Mondays” listeners want to know what is going to happen on Tuesday morning. The passion in Walsh’s listeners is palpable. You can feel it rumble. That passion arises from the urgency. Tuesday morning is just one night’s worry away. No candidate’s supporters show more angst than Walsh’s.

Is the urgency of Walsh’s supporters a bad thing ? Not at all. But it’s why his plan to sell City hall and begin the revitalization of Government Center as a “24/7 economic usage zone” moves them. His plan is for now, for immediate, doable action. Same with Walsh’s call that, “at my first meeting after I am elected will address the heroin epidemic.” Walsh knows that his voters can’t wait for improvements that may take a long while to bring about, or that may not happen at all. The difficulties that Walsh’s people want addressed will happen first thing Tuesday morning : traffic on Charlestown Neck, folks being priced out of their homes, how’s my son going to get a technology job, the lack of people of color in the higher-up Police department. And even if the last issue in this list seems like a task for another day, it isn’t. It’s something that Walsh’s supporters of color live with every day. (And Walsh does have many, many people of color supporting him and working in his campaign. He is seen as the candidate of burly white guys — and his stand-outs reinforce that perception — but he is much, much more than that.)

Walsh’s most recent “Monday,” at Haley House near Dudley square, drew an overflow crowd, standing room only and then some. Almost all were people of color. It was an event built on urgency and then some; on rescue.

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Marty Walsh : politics as rescue — for the folks at Haley House

Walsh spoke quickly. “Unemployment in Dudley is ten percent.,” he began. “This neighborhood lacks home ownership — a high percentage are renters. This neighborhood lacks education. We must make Madison Park High School work…as it hasn’t. Bring back ‘voke tech’ programs; they’re not here today.

“we are not preparing our kids for jobs,” he sprinted. “We have to do better… As mayor we’re going to strengthen our schools…turnaround schools..additional resources for ‘level 3’ schools. we need new school buildings !”

Walsh then jumped right into laying out his plan to sell City Hall and revitalize the Plaza area. And from there to “build work-force housing. Charge the buyer just the cost of construction, sell the buyer the land for one dollar. we have to do better…”

He spoke like a man being chased by demons, by wolves, of all sorts, every kind of clamoring need. “Violent kids ? We can lock them up all day, but it’s not working. We need to give kids a pathway to a job. More opportunities than just construction.”

The event was supposed to last only an hour,. It lasted two. Many questions were asked. Urgent ones. Walsh had sepcific answers to all of them. He has an agenda, and he knows every component of it and all are urgent. No wastage at all, no frills, no waiting.photo (81)

^ The questions and requests don’t stop : Marty Walsh “Monday”-ing in East Boston

And that is what his people are like too.

How different a city John Connolly lives in ! Last night we attended his “GOTV” — get out the vote — rally at the Elks Hall in West Roxbury. The room was almost as full as Walsh’s Haley House “Monday’ despite being much bigger.

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Like Walsh’s supporters, Connolly’s come in all colors — a city once torn by racism seems largely to have moved past that burden, at least among the politically attuned. Immediately evident, however, was that Connolly’s ralliers were of all ages and, so it seemed, of diverse life and economic status. Many men wore suits and ties : they might have come directly from a Back Bay Association meeting. Most looked like shopping mall folkss, but some looked recognizably  like politics junkies. I saw veterans of Kevin White’s and even Ray Flynn’s City hall following ; old Arthur Lewis and Bob Cawley people too (both were State Senators decades ago in Connolly’s home area of Roslindale.) I spoke to retired teachers, young students, mothers with babies and pregnant mothers-to-be. Connolly’s parents looked on — Lynda the retired Chief Judge of Massachusetts District Courts, Mike a former Massachusetts Secretary of State (but, as Connolly said, “to me they’re my parents who made me what I am today”). I’ve known Mike and Lynda for over forty years, and, I suspect, so had many in the room.

The people sounded confident, acted it. Tough s Connolly said, “the next six days you have to work harder than ever,” no one seemed harried. People stood and waited relaxedly for Connolly to arrive — he had attended an earlier, Transportation Issues Forum at Boston Public Library downtown — and when he did arrive, though everyone cheered, it was a relaxed cheer. Excited, but not impatient. Patience is a Connolly virtue.

Connolly has two campaign chairmen : State Rep Ed Coppinger and a radio announcer from 101.3. Coppinger is white, the radio guy Black. Both gave their introduction speeches after which spoke one of several Boston Public school parents on stage — a slender woman with nine children, she proudly announced — and then spoke Connolly’s wife Meg, who is pursuing a doctoral degree in Mental Health. She orated off written remarks. It all seemed very carefully planned, like a televised Victory night. Planning is a Connolly virtue.

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Planning : Meg Connolly introduces her husband John

And then the man himself spoke. “I am energized to meet people in every corner of this City,” he said. “We all want the same thing. we all care and want to have a bright future together.”

Connolly praised Mayor Menino, the man he had moved, back in February, to challenge : “We are a better city for his time in office and the sacrifices he has made.” I think we’ve all heard something like that being said about someone we are showing the door to. But i digress…

And then, finally, Connolly spoke with passion : “we are more and more a city of the very rich and the very poor. The task for the next mayor is to break that equity gap.

“It starts with a great job,” Connolly explained. “A great job makes that difference for a family. And then there’s housing. We have great plans for affordable housing and for expensive condos but we have no plan for middle level housing. We don’t have a pathway from renter to owner. I want a real pathway. A priority from day one.”

The gathered campaigners clapped. They appreciated Connolly’s remarks, agree with them. Appreciation is a Connolly virtue.

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^  “ready one day one” is the theme : John Connolly speaks

Connolly now rose to a higher plane : “Jobs and housing matter because they are directly connected to a safe neighborhood. The neighbors who live in the three neighborhoods where 80 percent of the crime occurs bear the burden of crime. They are OUR neighbors ! (Pause.) We have some children who will hear bullets as a regular part of their childhood. And children who will not.”

It was eloquent, it was true — too true, every word. the room was silent, because everyone present knew that it is sad as well.

The speech was peaking now. “I want a City hall with someone who comes up to you with an i-pad and says, ‘how can i help ?” I want to take everything that I have learned from all of you and give every child a quality education. That is the best way to bond this city together. WE NEED BETTER SCHOOLS !”

If in reading my report you are thinking, “Connolly sounds like Martin Luther King orating ‘I have a dream,'” you grasp my thoughts exactly. Connolly is running a campaign of dreams. Passionate ones, yes, and all good. Political dreams, however, take time to get to, time to accomplish. Connolly’s supporters feel that time is on their side; that they can make use of it and proceed upon it. Nor are they wrong. Because after the Tuesday morning that challenges Walsh’s people like a road hazard challenges a driver, there is Wednesday, and a week, month, year, decade. As for Boston people, so for the City itself.

And so Connolly’s campaign addresses time extended —  seeks, and has garnered, votes from Boston people who live in extended time, a time for setting forth a dream and moving — patiently — toward it.

—- Michael Freedberg / Here and Sphere