NO SURPRISES IN THREE SUFFOLK COUNTY SPECIAL ELECTIONS

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^ a happy moment for the Ryan Family — and for 40 years of Charlestown people

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Finally the three Special State Representative Elections have come and gone, the results known. For all the noise and drama, for all the cold and snow, the darkness and slog, the results in all three elections closely paralleled my personal predictions — both to result and total vote.

I wish there had been a surprise or two. But there wasn’t even one. Which does NOT mean there wasn’t big news. There was. Plenty of it, too.

( 1 ) BIG STORY OF THE NIGHT : the 2nd Suffolk District, which finally, after almost 40 years, elected a Charlestown guy, the Town’s first elected voice since Jimmy Collins left office in the late 1970s. Dan Ryan, an aide to Congressman Mike Capuano, did the trick:

Charlestown vote : Dan Ryan 2,071, Chris Remmes 359, Roy Avellaneda 122
Chelsea vote : Dan Ryan 229, Chris Remmes 79,l Roy Avellaneda 1,038
Totals : Dan Ryan 2,290 Chris Remmes 438, Roy Avellaneda 1,260

Total vote cast : 3,901. I predicted 4,000

Charlestown wanted this seat badly. BADLY. It outvoted Chelsea two to one. The usual vote is six to five Charlestown. But not this time.

Not many of Jack Kelly’s young Charlestown generation — who buoyed Kelly’s strong City Council candidacy in last year’s Boston elections — seemed to show. It was an older vote. In three hours at Charlestown polls — I visited each one — I saw only one millenial show up to cast a ballot. Nor were many young people visible at Ryan’s victory party. he won the race two to one; a message has been sent, and it’s a good one; but Ryan has serious work to do outreaching to the millenials whose lives have been ravaged by the drug war that Mayor Walsh last year proclaimed, at a Charlestown “Mondays with Marty’ meeting, was afoot on the streets of what is now Dan Ryan’s base.

A re-election campaign awaits Ryan.

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^ happy to build friendships in Charlestown : Mayor Walsh at Dan Ryan’s victory

( 2 ) THE RACE TO SUCCEED MARTY WALSH : speaking of Mayor Walsh, his place in the legislature has now been taken — convincingly — by a man very different. Dan Hunt, whose Dad and brother have trier to win the 13th Suffolk State Representative seat, conquered it big time :

Dorchester vote:

Dan Hunt 2,249 John O’Toole 1,052 Liam Curran 880 PJ McCann 230 Gene Gorman 137

Quincy vote (one precinct !)

Dan Hunt 88 John O’Toole 30 Liam Curran 10 PJ McCann 8 Gene Gorman 1

Total vote : Hunt 2,337 O’toole 1,082 Curran 890 McCann 238 Gorman 138

Total ballots cast : 4,791. (I predicted 5,000)

Dan Hunt won 46.5 % of all ballots, in a five man field. That’s about as convincing as it gets. His victory was fully expected. I said as much in two articles. He has the legislative chops, he started early, he raised much more money than his rivals, he had lots of endorsements and most of the district’s “opinion leaders.” Hunt is no throwback. He gets it. He will likely be an influential legislator before his first term is out. Yes, he has to run for re-election almost immediately, for a full term. I doubt that will be a problem.

( 3 ) The easiest to predict of the three races was the one in Revere, mostly; the 16th Suffolk state Representative seat vacated by Kathi Reinstein. Roselee Vincent won the Democratic nomination. Unlike the other two Suffolk districts, however, she isn’t saeted yet. She faces Republican Todd Taylor on April 1st.

Revere vote : Roselee Vincent 990 Linda Rosa 550 Josh Monahan 81
Chelsea vote : Roselee Vincent 75 Linda Rosa 42 Josh Monahan 277
Saugus vote : (unavailable at the Town of Saugus website as of 12.30 PM 03.05.14; will update when I can)
Total vote not including Saugus : Vincent 1,065 Rosa 592 Monahan 358
Total ballots cast not including Saugus : 1,746. I predicted 2,000 total.

Roselee Vincent has been chief aide to both Kathi Reinstein and her father Bill Reinstein. She represents continuity in a city where stability is almost an article of faith. She raised more money than all her rivals combined, had practically the entire Revere political community backing her, and seems assured of winning both on April lst and in November. But revere is by far the most Republican voting community in Suffolk County, and Saugus, in Essex County, votes even more so. Vincent’s victory over a strong, Revere Republican opponent — were one to arise — would not be at all assured. Linda Rosa is the most Tea Party-ish Democrat I’ve encountered in all of Suffolk County. Were she to run as a Republican, Vincent would face a real battle.

On now to April 1st, when the 5th Suffolk state Representative seat holds ITS special electioon, to succeed the ousted Carlos Henriquez. And when Revere votes too.

Also on tap for April 1st : the voters of the 5th Middlesex State Senate District, where Democratic nominee Jason Lewis, of Winchester, now faces Melrose alderman Monica Medeiros in a seat held by Republican Rich Tisei for 22 years.

—- Mike Freedberg / Here and Sphere

16TH SUFFOLK DISTRICT : ROCK, PAPER, SCISSORS — BUT FOR REAL

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^ entertaining the Seniors ; Josh Monahan, Linda Rosa, Roselee Vincent

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At least 150 Revere senior citizens (as we nicely entitle the old) got lots of entertainment last night from the three Democrats running for State Representative in the least publicized of Tuesday’s three Suffolk County special elections. At the Jack Satter House — a senior digs more luxe than many hotels — Roselee Vincent, Linda Rosa, and Josh Monahan explained their candidacies and answered questions — some way too snarky — from folks who have already seen a heckuva lot of candidates say their thing.

The three sounded as differently lethal as rock, paper, and scissors in that child’s game we all played, except that this was no game. The Representative from Revere (parts of Chelsea and Saugus are included as well) can’t play games, except for keeps, because Revere is a smallish place alongside huge Boston. Playing Mr. Nice Guy, it would get no attention.

Given the likely small number of voters who will cast ballots on Tuesday — Revere had its big voting night this past Tuesday, when close to 10,000 voted a big “Yes !” to the Mohegan Sun/Suffolk Downs casino proposal — the Jack Satter House Forum was practically the entire show. Thus the exaggerations, the differences, the almost attacks made by each upon the others. Forums I’ve attended in the Dorchester district holding a “special” have all been respectful affairs, no candidate going mano a man o with any other. Not so the Jack Satter Forum.

Roselee Vincent presented herself pretty much as already ON the job, so why not just vote to confirm it ? “For 25 years I have worked in the office that I now seek to hold,” she said, citing her service for both Kathi Reinstein — whose resignation to become Boston beer’s PR gal sparked this Special election — and her Dad, Bill Reinstein. Vincent listed her major endorsements too : Revere Mayor Dan Rizzo, School Committee Member Carol Tye, and of course Kathi Reinstein. Much applause confirmed that many in the room already support her; dark blue “Vincent” stick-ons could be seen on many attendees’ shirts.

Vincent then left for “a previous engagement, scheduled weeks ago” — she had already told me, in a conversation several nights ago, that this was the case — and her Revere rival, Linda Rosa, spoke next. “I’m the first woman ever elected a Revere Councillor City Wide,” said she, aggressive, very much the firebrand who one often hears in local government meetings. “We need a voice !”

It was her theme and she was sticking to it. Asked, quite snidely — by a Vincent person — what her first priority would be if elected, she said “making sure there’s no more Special elections like this one that cost the taxpayer. Make them serve their full term, or return the salary !”

For this response there was some approval from the attendees. I’ve heard many ordinary people — not only in the 16th District — voice similar sentiments.

It was hard to tell if the Vincent supporter was more surprised by Rosa’s answer or gleeful of it; in any case, he pressed his bet : “That’s your first priority ? OK, what’s your second ?

Rosa was ready. “We don’t need this Obamacare,” she said, sounding like a Tea party gal.” (This, said to 150 seniors !) The Vincent supporter grinned — he’d hit the jackpot. But the Forum moderator wasn’t having this battle of the two women. “What,” he asked young candidate Josh Monahan, a Chelsea resident, “is YOUR first priority ?

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^ a Tea Party democrat ? Linda Rosa : ‘we don’t need this Obamacare !”

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^  young man with future ideas : Josh Monahan

Monahan had already given his why-i-am-running speech. In it, he challenged the two women. “It’s well and good to talk about what you have done these past 26 years, but how about what you’re going to do next ? I’m 29 years old; I look to the future.” This had been exactly the speech that needed to be made after Vincent’s and Rosa’s recounting of past deeds; I could hardly wait to hear what first priority he would announce.

“Local aid,” he said. “It’s been cut back by 100 million over the past four years, cuts that have impacted local services to the bone. we need to increase local aid.”

Applause. And there was more. As Rosa was asked a second priority, so was Monahan. “Raising the minimum wage,” he said. And that was that; Forum complete.

The likely very few who vote on Tuesday must now know that they face three completely different candidacies. Monahan has a future agenda; Vincent equals continuation; Rosa will be the big, did-she-really-say-that ? voice. If you’re handicapping a result, look to the money raised. Vincent has outraised Monahan and Rosa combined several times over. Advantage, continuation.

In other words, Roselee Vincent wins. I would be surprised if she didn’t. Which is not to say that Josh Monahan, especially, isn’t an impressive candidate. He is.

But the Democratic primary is NOT the whole story. There is a Republican candidate running, Todd Taylor of Chelsea. he wasn’t included, evidently, in the Satter House Forum, which was a big mistake: whatever his candidacy may be about, he gets to announce it with less than three weeks before the April 1st election day. There will be little time for the Democratic nominee to respond — and, if her presentation at the Satter House was any indication, it would not surprise me one bit if Linda Rosa, assuming she isn’t nominated, ends up endorsing Taylor. The game in Revere is not over.

—- Mike Freedberg / Here and Sphere

16TH SUFFOLK DISTRICT : WHAT DOES REVERE WANT ?

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^ probably the 16th Suffolk candidate to beat : Roselee Vincent, chairing the Revere Democratic caucus yesterday

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A Special Election, called when an officer holder leaves in the middle of his or her term, gives the communities involved unique opportunity to draw attention to themselves. For the 16th Suffolk State Representative District, from which office Kathi Reinstein resigned to become a voice for Boston Beer Company, that means Revere, the northernmost city in Suffolk County.

In general elections, Revere goes largely unnoticed; the hugeness of nearby Boston all but blocks it. Even now, with two Boston-based Special Elections taking place on the same March 4th Primary Day, Revere’s election lags behind. Every Boston news medium wants to know who will win the Dorchester state representative seat which now Mayor Walsh gave up. Many media are beginning to look at the donnybrook going on in Charlestown and Chelsea, the 2nd Suffolk district. In contrast, the Revere race goes wallflower.

Even the four candidates running seem hushed. None has even 100 twitter followers; two lack facebook pages. Compare that to the hundreds of twitter followers amassed in the 2nd Suffolk or the 1500 twitter accounts and hourly-active Facebook pages attuned to the Dorchester race.photo (12)

^ Chelsea’s Josh Monahan : well-informed with a city-management resume

Yet surely the question “what d0es Revere want ?” must have an answer. Waiting on one, I’ll mention a Revere issue already in play : the Mohegan sun / Suffolk Downs casino. On Tuesday, Revere people will vote whether to approve the plan or not. (Why this election is not taking place on Primary day, I will never figure. Truly our state is run by clown-eyes.) The Mohegan sun plan, which I find hugely inferior to Steve Wynn’s Everett proposal, seems likely to elicit a divided vote. Narrowly “Yes” looks to be the outcome. Do the four 16th Suffolk candidates support that outcome ? What plans do they propose for using the large mitigation money accruing to Revere if the State Gaming Commission awards Mohegan the Boston zone casino license ?

Of course there are other issues that face Massachusetts cities and towns this year : shall we expand pre-school education, and how to pay for it ? What level of Local aid money will Revere need in order to establish dual-language education in its public schools attended by so many newly resident children of Hispanic or Moroccan origin ? How strongly can — will — Revere push for state aid that Blue Line infrastructure repair calls upon, not to overlook purchases of new trains to replace cars that always break down ? What measures will the State take to alleviate the effects of rising sea levels that already threaten to flood almost every home along North Shore Road and its side streets ?

It will be interesting to hear what Roselee Vincent and Linda S. Rosa — the two Revere candidates — have to say. (I have already interviewed the other Democrat, Chelsea’s Josh Monahan, and he has plenty to say, most of it well informed and envisioned.) And that’s not all. This race has the distinction, unique in Suffolk County, of featuring a Republican candidate, Chelsea’s Todd Taylor, who appears to have significant support. I have yet to hear one word of issues from him, but he seems to belong to the Charlie Baker, reasonable GOP middle and is running in by far the most Republican-voting city in Suffolk County. Taylor faces the Democratic nominee on an April 1st election day. Debate seems assured. Hopefully Revere will benefit by having its concerns thus spotlighted.

A first candidates’ Forum takes place this Thursday evening at 420 Revere beach Boulevard.

—- Mike Freedberg / Here and Sphere

below : GOP candidate Todd Taylor and family

1 Todd Taylor candidacy